Poppa Ponders
Poppa Ponders…. Practice. The Kobalt 400 2017
““I know it’s important, I honestly do, but we’re talking about practice.” “We’re talking about practice man.”—Allen Iverson
Depending on the track practice can provide you as a fantasy player an information edge that most fantasy players fail to utilize. In this instalment of Poppa Ponders we will take a look at Practice 2 and Happy Hour (Final Practice) for the Kobalt 400 and attempt to extrapolate information that will give us a fantasy edge.
Practice 2- There are times when this practice is the most important for race information. This week there is very little info worthy of our time, let me explain why. Practice 2 took place this morning in track conditions that we will not see come race time. The track was much cooler than it will be race time. This dramatically affects the speed of the cars (makes them faster) as well as handling (increases grip). Because of these factors most cars did not run at least 10 consecutive laps(the consecutive lap average is the best practice fantasy indicator). Then the ones who did gave us data that isn’t applicable come race time. Practice 2 results can be found here.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2017/pdfs/03lvms2017prac2.pdf
Happy Hour Practice. The most important thing to understand is that this is the practice (in most instances) where teams will show what they have for the race. This week the track temp and conditions from Happy Hour should mimic the actual race. The Happy Hour practice results can be found here. http://www.jayski.com/stats/2017/pdfs/03lvms2017prac3.pdf
As I was saying above, the important part of that data is the 10 consecutive lap averages. There are a couple of tricks when using this data. First, it is important to know what cars were doing and what for what function. Is a driver testing setup, tire wear or trying lines on the track. Secondly, use that data but don’t over rely on it. This is because once again a team may not be showing everything they have.
It is also important to pay attention to any equipment changes that could cause your driver to start from the rear. For Example: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Qualified 29th, during Happy Hour he trashed his car by slamming into the wall, requiring his team to move to a backup car. Because of this, he will start 39th now, however for the purposes of fantasy he still starts 29th. This means he will start the race -10 Place differential. *Bonus note Stenhouse was very unhappy with his car before the wreck. If anything, the backup car may be better for him. Also, even in a backup car he can easily get back into the 20’s as long as he stays on the track.
The practices I watched comprised with the practice data says that Blaney and Larson are FAST!!! Faster than I thought. The question will be, can they run with the Superstars who are all right there with them on speed. KES, Truex, Jimmy, Harvick and Rowdy all look to put down some really fast laps and any one of them could contend for the win. Good Luck Kids!
Sean “Big Poppa” Williams is the Host, and Editor of the Rubbing is Racing Fantasy NASCAR Show and Top 25 Ranked Daily Fantasy NASCAR Player
Poppa Ponders… The Clash and The Daytona 500 2-22-2017
This Season Poppa Ponders will take a look back at the previous week’s fantasy contests and attempt to find lessons and trends that can benefit us as fantasy NASCAR players.
After an amazing finish to NASCAR’s Exhibition the Clash, the 2017 NASCAR Season kicks off with the Daytona 500. What information did the clash provide that we can extrapolate into some fantasy goodness.
What is it to be Contrarian?
Contrarianism – Just means you are against the majority position for whatever reason. For Fantasy NASCAR, I group Contrarianism into two categories:
Ownership Contrarianism and Performance Contrarianism. (I have a feeling this will be a future Poppa Ponders topic )
Can Being Contrarian Pay Off?
In the Clash the 2 favorites (Keslowski and Hamlin) both got into each other on the final lap.
The Winning lineup was :
Driver: Ownership: Start: Finish: Points:
#88 Bowman 14.6% 8 3 48
#18 K. Busch 69.2% 13 2 55.75
#24 Elliot 46.8% 14 7 47
#22 Logano 58.7% 9 1 57.5
#10 Danica 11.6% 12 4 48.5
#19 Suarez 34.8% 16 8 46.5
—TOTAL Fantasy Score 303.25
Cleary contrarianism paid off for the Clash!
Let’s Examine what made this lineup contrarian: By leaving off the 2 race favorites (Kes and Hamlin) this lineup would automatically qualify as contrarian to some. In the instance of the Clash, the small field of driver options(17), limited the effect of just a Favorites fade. The winning lineup went further contrarian by playing Suarez @ 34.8% , Bowman @ 14.6% and then played Danica @ 11.6%. For the Clash it was these Plays in combination with the Favorites fade that ended up taking Down the top spot. The Plays I really liked were Suarez and Bowman I thought they would be under owned and but I had Zero exposure to Danica. The other plays Elliot, Kyle and Logano were chalk place differential plays and should have been as highly owned as they were
Hindsight is 20/20
In this instance Contrarian paid off. But, what had to happen for this strategy to work? First Danica had her best ever finish! In 9 full races at Daytona she has never finished higher than 8th and both times she finished 8th once it took half the field wrecking and the other over 1/3 . In 6 of those 9 races she has wrecked and in 8 of 9 races she was negative place differential. This was a play I just couldn’t make! If we are being honest it literally took Danica doing something she has never done for this to work! Secondly, it took both guys 150 lineups to come up with this variation that paid out. (Both GiffenBone and AlexMartin11 Max entered the Victory Lane) So I wouldn’t beat yourself up about not having it. Third, this lineup only worked when Hamlin and Keslowski got into each other and spread the field and both fell back.
What does it mean?
Contrarianism is for the most part an “All or Nothing” strategy. More times than not it will light your money and lineups on fire. However, in the correct strategy approach, like the ones employed in the Clash by GiffenBone and AlexMartin11 it can reap massive rewards, if and only if the right circumstances happen. These players used the odds of wrecks at Daytona combined with the low ownership and place differential to come up with the winning lineups. After all the reason they call it contrarian, is Because it is an unlikely outcome! However, when it hits you will be on an island. However if you are thinking about rolling back Danica for the 500 think again. I would fall back to The Danica Rule*, it rarely steers you wrong! Although she is in play in the Duel 2 contest.
*The Danica Rule: Unless she starts 24 or worse, don’t roster her!
Sean “Big Poppa” Williams is the Host, and Editor of the Rubbing is Racing Fantasy NASCAR Show and Top 25 Ranked Daily Fantasy NASCAR Player